Championship Weekend is here, two games, four great teams. The Sunday slate starts with Tampa Bay-Green Bay at 3:05 pm ET, followed by Buffalo-Kansas City at 6:40 pm ET.
With four of the best offenses in the NFL, there is some intriguing player prop value to be had. Let’s take a look at a few favorite props for championship weekend.
Championship Weekend Props: Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards
Josh Allen is one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, evidenced by his 421 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. With the loss of rookie Zack Moss, it’s Allen who leads the Bills in rushing in their two postseason games.
The Chiefs run defense comes in ranked 31st in DVOA efficiency, and the Bills have shown a willingness to design runs for Allen. Kansas City’s Chris Jones is the second-ranked pass-rushing defensive tackle in the NFL this year, according to PFF. His presence gives a strong advantage to the interior defensive line going against a middling interior offensive line for Buffalo.
This advantage may actually hurt the Chiefs, as pressure up the middle will flood Allen out of the pocket, where he hasn’t shied away from tucking it and running. In their Week 6 game, Allen had 42 yards. This number is a strong value for the Bills' top rusher.
Championship Weekend Props: Travis Kelce over 94.5 receiving yards
Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ favorite weapon, leading the team in targets during the regular season. The Bills have struggled to cover tight ends this year, allowing the second-most yards to the position this year.
This puts Kelce in a tremendous position on Sunday, even at this intimidatingly high over/under. The star tight end has hit this number in seven of his last nine games. Mahomes will look to Kelce early and often, and in a projected shootout - Kelce will have his share of game-changing plays.
Championship Weekend Props: Leonard Fournette over 42.5 rushing yards
The Packers' defense matches up well with the Buccaneers' offensive strengths. Their secondary, led by Jaire Alexander, is well-positioned to slow down Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and their pass rush could also disrupt Tom Brady’s flow.
Green Bay’s defensive weakness is in the run game, and the Buccaneers would be wise to exploit it. Fournette has been the leading man this postseason, with 156 rushing yards in two games. The two games came against two of the strongest run defenses in the NFL, making his success all the more impressive.
Tampa Bay will be looking to build long drives and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. Fournette will be at the helm of that effort, and with the presence of Ronald Jones, this number is extremely reasonable.
Don’t be scared by Jones. Last week against New Orleans, Fournette took 17 carries to Jones’ 13 and played significantly more snaps.
Fournette has looked spry this postseason, and against Green Bay’s below-average rush defense, expect 15 carries for the former Jaguar. Averaging 4.3 yards per rush, that type of volume would put him well above this line.