A battle of first-place heavyweights concludes Sunday's NFL action, as the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers will face off at Lambeau Field. The 10-4 Titans are winners of four of their last five and are aiming to take sole possession of first place in the AFC South.
Meanwhile, the 11-3 Packers are NFC North champs once again and in a strong position to claim the top seed in the conference after four straight victories.
Here is a closer look at both the Titans and Packers, along with betting trends and a free pick. Green Bay is currently a three-point favorite at home.
Titans Outlook
The Titans have shown flashes of dominance, and while they sit in a tie for first, they have been somewhat inconsistent. Tennessee won their first five games of the season and four of their last five but underwent a stretch where they dropped three out of four in the middle of the year.
Now with two games to go, both on the road, last year's AFC Championship finalists will need to stay on the winning track if they are going to capture their first division title since 2008.
Tennessee's loaded offense includes running back Derrick Henry, who's inching toward 2,000 rushing yards, as well as quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. That group leads an offense that is tied with the Chiefs for the most points per game with 31.1 and is second with just under 410 yards. The rushing attack led by Henry also averages 160 rushing yards per game.
However, defense is a different story. The Titans are allowing just under 26 points per game, 21st in the NFL.
They're also giving up just under 400 yards per game, hurt by a bottom-five pass defense and the worst third-down rate in football. Tennessee is also dead last with 14 sacks but does have a solid 13 interceptions as a team.
Packers Outlook
The Packers, somewhat like the Titans, had a mediocre stretch sandwiched between two different periods of dominance. Green Bay had a 3-3 stretch in the middle of the year, but it was book-ended by a 4-0 start and a recent stretch of four consecutive wins.
With the division now in tow, the Packers have only Tennessee and a road game against the Bears standing between them and their first number one seed since 2011.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having one of the best years of his career, as is wide receiver Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones. That trio is largely responsible for an offense that is also averaging 31 points per game and over 402 yards per game.
The Packers are also in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards and have the second-best third-down percentage at 49 percent.
On the flip side, Green Bay is 14th with 24.2 points per game. The Packers are also inside the top 10 in a few defensive categories, including seventh with 354 total yards allowed and 228 passing yards allowed per game.
The Packers also have 38 sacks as a team but have a low eight interceptions total.
Betting Trends
Starting with the visitors, the 10-4 Titans are just 7-7 ATS. They're also 3-3 ATS on the road even though they've won five of their six games away from home.
However, Tennessee has covered in four of its past five and has actually won four of its last five against Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the 11-3 Packers are still a solid 8-6 ATS. They're 4-3 ATS at Lambeau as well, even though they're 6-1 overall at home.
However, Green Bay has only covered in two of its last six games and is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC South.
Betting Pick
This is one of the best games on the Week 16 slate thanks to two dynamic offenses, innovative head coaches, and big playoff implications. Therefore, I expect the result to be closely-contested.
Look for Henry to run a lot against a vulnerable Packers run defense, while Rodgers has time to throw against a Titans defense that struggles to sack the quarterback. I'll give the slight edge to the Titans covering due to them playing the better football at the moment, but this game feels truly like a pick 'em.
Pick: Titans +3
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