The Iowa State Cyclones (4-2, 3-1) are one of three teams tied for first in the Big 12, and this Saturday, they face eighth-place Baylor Bears (1-3, 1-3). With the other two teams with one loss (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) facing each other this week, Iowa State can take a big step toward appearing in the conference title game.

Kickoff at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, is set for 7 pm ET on Saturday, November 7, and will be televised on FS1. Last season the Bears won at home 23-21 to snap a two-game ISU winning streak. Overall, Baylor leads the series 10-8, but they trail 5-3 in Iowa, with the last win coming in 2016.

Baylor Has to Slow Down the Run

Baylor had a rough start to the season with three games postponed by COVID, so they have played less games than all over Big 12 teams. The Bears are 1-2-1 ATS this season, and the under is 2-1-1 in their four games.

Baylor had a slow start at home last Saturday, falling behind TCU 33-7. They rallied with two late touchdowns but still lost 33-23. Baylor’s lone win on the season came against Kansas on September 26.

Against TCU, quarterback Charlie Brewer threw for 203 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. On the season, he has 830 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.

Running back Craig Williams ran 10 times for 91 yards with a touchdown. On the season, he leads Baylor with 169 yards at 9.4 yards per carry and has two touchdowns.

Brewer found seven different receivers, with tight end Ben Sims catching four balls for 40 yards and two touchdowns while wideout Yusuf Terry had two catches for 43 yards. R.J. Sneed leads Baylor with 17 catches and 198 yards on the season, while Sims has a team-best three interceptions.

Baylor gave up over 200 yards rushing against TCU, and on the season, they have allowed 177.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 64th in the nation.

Balanced Attack For Iowa State

Iowa State is 3-3 ATS this season, and the over is 3-3 in their six games. They lost at Oklahoma State two weeks ago and host Kansas State on November 21 after a bye week.

Iowa State throttled Kansas 52-22 last week with at least two scores in three of the four quarters. They are averaging 200.7 rushing yards per game and 232.7 passing yards per game in a balanced offense on the season.

Quarterback Brock Purdy threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another against Kansas. He has 1,313 yards to go with seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and three rushing scores.

Running back Breece Hall carried 21 times for 185 yards and two touchdowns, while Kene Nwangwu added 57 yards and a touchdown. Hall has 901 yards at a 6.7 clip this season with 11 touchdowns.

Wideout Xavier Hutchinson had five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, while Landen Akers caught six balls for 76 yards. Hutchinson has 33 catches for 384 yards and three scores on the season.

Baylor at Iowa State Odds

The Cyclones enter the game as a two-touchdown favorite with a -14 line. The total is 47.5, and Baylor is +425 on the money line to pull off the upset.

Betting Analysis

Baylor is overmatched in this one, both on paper and on the field. If they start slow like they did against TCU, the likely will get blown out of Ames with the wall Hall runs the ball, and Purdy directs the offense. With the Cyclones gearing up for big games against KSU and Texas, look for them to make a statement against the Bears.

FREE PICK: Iowa State -14

Posted 
Nov 5, 2020
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